Estimating Quarterly GDP for the Interwar UK Economy: An Application to the Employment Function

Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for series for which data is available at a low frequency using data on a related series at the higher frequency. In this paper we set out a simple algorithm for the generation of quarterly estimates for a series for which annual data is available and quarterly data is available for the related series. We apply this to data for interwar Gross Domestic Product using Industrial Production as the related series. Using this approach we generate quarterly GDP figures for the period 1920.1 to 1938.4. This series is valuable in that it can be used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output which is not possible when we use industrial production directly as our quarterly measure of aggregate demand

Reconciling visions and realities of virtual working: findings from the UK chemicals industry

The emergence of advanced technologies such as Grid computing will, some suggest, allow the final realisation of visions of virtual organisations. This will, according to its advocates, have entirely positive impacts, creating communities of experts, increasing flexibility, reducing the need for travel and making communications more efficient by crossing boundaries of time and space. Such predictions about future patterns of virtual working are, unfortunately, rarely grounded in real working practices, and often neglect to account for both the rich and varied interpretations that may exist of what constitutes virtual working and the constraints and concerns of those who would do it. This chapter gives attention to the consequences of different views over what virtuality might mean in practice and, in particular, considers virtuality in relation to customer and supplier relationships in a competitive and commercial context. The discussion is based upon a three year study that investigated contrasting visions of what was technically feasible and might be organisationally desirable in the UK Chemicals industry. Through interviews with managers and staff of companies both large and small that research provided insights into the different meanings that organisations attribute to the virtuality of work and to the acceptability of potential implementations of a middleware technology. It was found that interpretations of virtuality amongst the potential users and participants were strongly influenced by established work practices and by previous experiences of relationships-at-a-distance with suppliers and customers. There was a sharp contrast with the enthusiastic visions of virtual working that were already being encapsulated in the middleware by the technical developers; visions of internet-only interaction were perceived as rigid, alienating from well-established ways of working with suppliers and customers and unworkable. In this chapter we shall capture these differences by making a distinction amongst compet

Coupling with the stationary distribution and improved sampling for colorings and independent sets

We present an improved coupling technique for analyzing the mixing time of Markov chains. Using our technique, we simplify and extend previous results for sampling colorings and independent sets. Our approach uses properties of the stationary distribution to avoid worst-case configurations which arise in the traditional approach. As an application, we show that for $k/\Delta >1.764$, the Glauber dynamics on $k$-colorings of a graph on $n$ vertices with maximum degree $\Delta$ converges in $O(n\log n)$ steps, assuming $\Delta =\Omega(\log n)$ and that the graph is triangle-free. Previously, girth $\ge 5$ was needed. As a second application, we give a polynomial-time algorithm for sampling weighted independent sets from the Gibbs distribution of the hard-core lattice gas model at fugacity $\lambda <(1-\epsilon)e/\Delta$, on a regular graph $G$ on $n$ vertices of degree $\Delta =\Omega(\log n)$ and girth $\ge 6$. The best known algorithm for general graphs currently assumes $\lambda <2/(\Delta -2)$.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051606000000330 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Central Valley at a Crossroads: Migration and Its Implications

Examines recent trends in domestic and international migration flows, population growth, and changes in the region's socioeconomic profile. Looks at policy strategies used by each valley subregion to address challenges presented by recent migration